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the difference and margin this polls or obama is going to win. do you have any feelings about that. >> we are under such an avalanche of polling data now like we have never seen before, you can construct a quite plausible scenario for any of the three possibilities you mentioned and probably a couple of others. i think the conventional wisdom is trending towards and obama win, something along the lines of what karl rove and his team pulled off for president bush in 2004. but, i'm by no means certain and there is a striking discrepancy between national polls which tend to be done by and large by older, more seasoned polling firms and state polls, a number of which are done by less established firms, the national polls have it as a tie and the state polls, as it suggested, battle ground state polls, suggest and indicate that president obama is ahead in nearly all of them. it is -- seems striking that there would be this difference. and we don't know. but, it is sobering, if you are a romney supporter to think he is trailing or, just tied, in so man
the difference and margin this polls or obama is going to win. do you have any feelings about that. >> we are under such an avalanche of polling data now like we have never seen before, you can construct a quite plausible scenario for any of the three possibilities you mentioned and probably a couple of others. i think the conventional wisdom is trending towards and obama win, something along the lines of what karl rove and his team pulled off for president bush in 2004. but, i'm by no...
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even if your polls, president obama retains the advantage but it has been used to shrink it. just what you said. >> first of all, it has been shrunk by ordinary americans looking at the president's handling of the situation and, feeling that he is coming up way short and my comment about lookin this, i'm looking at this from the perspective of having been in the white house and i cannot imagine that at 4:05 in the afternoon the situation room got word of an attack on an american facility in benghazi they wouldn't have taken it to the president and the national security advisor and the president would not have been engaged and i take the president's word. >> thank you, karl, you said... >> chris: wait, let karl finish. >> blaming the -- >> juan, hold on, let karl finish. >> i did. >> no, he didn't. he didn't. >> no. >> chris: let him finish. >> if the president ordered the assistance beiven and none was given until well after 7 hours later. if the cia at the clan des type annex were told three times don't engage and we had men disregard the orders of their superiors and go to
even if your polls, president obama retains the advantage but it has been used to shrink it. just what you said. >> first of all, it has been shrunk by ordinary americans looking at the president's handling of the situation and, feeling that he is coming up way short and my comment about lookin this, i'm looking at this from the perspective of having been in the white house and i cannot imagine that at 4:05 in the afternoon the situation room got word of an attack on an american facility...
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one of the other arguments the obama campaign makes these national polls. gallup poll has shown consistently a seven-point lead for romney. simply missing these obama voters who will get out again. >> we have two polling races. we have rasmussen and gallup in one corner. according to the gallup and rasmussen we're headed for a landslide for romney. 11-point victory, he got seven, obama. they lost last time by huge amounts. i don't know what's going on out there. george, none of us does, i think, i think it's going to be extremely close. i think, like nicolle, it's going to be about ohio, the auto bailout. of all the policies and the arguments -- >> or miscounting latino voters. or people who don't respond to hard-line phone calls. or just the science of polling. >> or the number of times i have refused to pick up my phone when i can see it's research firm. but, nonetheless, i think a nightmare frankly, maybe we can all agree on this, is that there are some electoral college/popular vote difference. >> one scenario is that it just doesn't come down to one st
one of the other arguments the obama campaign makes these national polls. gallup poll has shown consistently a seven-point lead for romney. simply missing these obama voters who will get out again. >> we have two polling races. we have rasmussen and gallup in one corner. according to the gallup and rasmussen we're headed for a landslide for romney. 11-point victory, he got seven, obama. they lost last time by huge amounts. i don't know what's going on out there. george, none of us does, i...
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>> national tracking polls has of them close, but the key battleground states, obama still holds a lead. >> what is the ground game, mark? >> the organized effort over months to identify and not only support -- identified not only supporters, but leaners, and persuade them on how one by one retail basis. weeks before election day, you know who your voters are. you want to be sure you get the vote. >> in many of the battle ground states, obama has more field offices. >> it is down to micromanaging, micro-issuing these of votes. interestingly, the republicans had a better ground game in 2004, and a lot of people think that is why and they won that close election. it sort of fell into disrepair today are building it back up now, but i don't think they are anywhere near where obama is yet. >> there is another question. which candidate has the most d.c. asked to come most engaged, most dedicated supporters? >> that is a hard one to answer. clearly after the first debate, the republican party at everly and these as to support their. romney did do well compared to obama. there was disappointme
>> national tracking polls has of them close, but the key battleground states, obama still holds a lead. >> what is the ground game, mark? >> the organized effort over months to identify and not only support -- identified not only supporters, but leaners, and persuade them on how one by one retail basis. weeks before election day, you know who your voters are. you want to be sure you get the vote. >> in many of the battle ground states, obama has more field offices....
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could that factor in and be a boon for barack obama? >> it is. i think we feel good about virginia and florida. we have senate races in both states that we're watching very closely. that case has been a nail biter. both of the candidates got into the race. it swings back and forth. like any campaign there is an ebb and a blow -- and be ebb and flow. i think that george allen's campaign has been very effective er
could that factor in and be a boon for barack obama? >> it is. i think we feel good about virginia and florida. we have senate races in both states that we're watching very closely. that case has been a nail biter. both of the candidates got into the race. it swings back and forth. like any campaign there is an ebb and a blow -- and be ebb and flow. i think that george allen's campaign has been very effective er
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obama has led among independents by two, and two polls they didn't break out by democrat or republican or independent. it is hard to believe if romney is leading among republicans by the margins he is and leading among democrats or among independents by an average of 13 that he will not win. >>chris: a last question, you have this map like it is set in stone but you hear talk about the possibility that there could be new states that come on including pennsylvania or michigan or minnesota. could romney have a chance in any of other states we previously thought were solid for obama? >> he bought television in minnesota but own minneapolis tv, to hit far west wisconsin but we have to watch pennsylvania which have moved from obama to lean obama so if there is a national trend since the first debate moving in romney's direction --. >> i don't think the states are if play. they can get romney there to spend time but i wouldn't do it. if i win ohio or wisconsin the states that are up they have a better shot of getting there. >>chris: like herding cats here today. when we come back what issues
obama has led among independents by two, and two polls they didn't break out by democrat or republican or independent. it is hard to believe if romney is leading among republicans by the margins he is and leading among democrats or among independents by an average of 13 that he will not win. >>chris: a last question, you have this map like it is set in stone but you hear talk about the possibility that there could be new states that come on including pennsylvania or michigan or minnesota....
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could that factor in and be a boon for barack obama? >> it is. i think we feel good about virginia and florida. we have senate races in both states that we're watching very closely. that case has been a nail biter. both of the candidates got into the race. it swings back and forth. like any campaign there is an ebb and flow. i think that george allen's campaign has been very effective there. i think it will come down to the turnout. there is a strong correlation between the presidential race and the senate race. i think a lot will go very closely aligned and how virginia comes out. because we feel very good about governor romney's prospects, we also feel pretty good about george allen's prospects. >> harry reid said it was a fantasy to think the democrats would work with iran if he is elected. if there romney is elected, do you think democrats will work with a romney administration? if the president is reelected, will there be a more bipartisan spirit? >> however this comes out i hope we can get on with governing the country in doing the nation's
could that factor in and be a boon for barack obama? >> it is. i think we feel good about virginia and florida. we have senate races in both states that we're watching very closely. that case has been a nail biter. both of the candidates got into the race. it swings back and forth. like any campaign there is an ebb and flow. i think that george allen's campaign has been very effective there. i think it will come down to the turnout. there is a strong correlation between the presidential...
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obama has led among independents by two, and two polls they didn't break out by democrat or republican or independent. it is hard to believe if romney is leading among republicans by the margins he is and leading among democrats or among independents by an average of 13 that he will not win. >>chris: a last question, you have this map like it is set in stone but you hear talk about the possibility that there could be new states that come on including pennsylvania or michigan or minnesota. could romney have a chance in any of other states we previously thought were solid for obama? >> he bought television in minnesota but own minneapolis tv, to hit far west wisconsin but we have to watch pennsylvania which have moved from obama to lean obama so if there is a national trend since the first debate moving in romney's direction --. >> i don't think the states are if play. they can get romney there to spend time but i wouldn't do it. if i win ohio or wisconsin the states that are up they have a better shot of getting there. >>chris: like herding cats here today. when we come back what issues
obama has led among independents by two, and two polls they didn't break out by democrat or republican or independent. it is hard to believe if romney is leading among republicans by the margins he is and leading among democrats or among independents by an average of 13 that he will not win. >>chris: a last question, you have this map like it is set in stone but you hear talk about the possibility that there could be new states that come on including pennsylvania or michigan or minnesota....
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new washington post poll out showing president obama at 51. governor romney at 47%. this is a race that has a similar situation in ohio. your economy is doing better than the national economy is, and this has been a tough row for him to hoe. what does mitt romney have to do if he can get into the state after the storm to turn this around? >> well, first i do want to thank governor romney who called me yesterday and agreed to cancel three events in virginia today to allow our first responders to focus on that. i appreciate it. the president is doing the same thing tomorrow. you mentioned the post poll. there are two other polls, both rasmussen and fox, that have romney up by two. it's margin of error. it's close, and it's going to come down to turn out the last undecided voters. i think why romney will win virginia is because he is the one that's going to reverse these sequestration cuts. they're going to devastate the military and cost us $200,000 jobs. the president has been a bystander and won't do that. he is the one with the plan to create jobs and we've got 23 m
new washington post poll out showing president obama at 51. governor romney at 47%. this is a race that has a similar situation in ohio. your economy is doing better than the national economy is, and this has been a tough row for him to hoe. what does mitt romney have to do if he can get into the state after the storm to turn this around? >> well, first i do want to thank governor romney who called me yesterday and agreed to cancel three events in virginia today to allow our first...
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. >> a national poll showing romney's national favorability at 53%, just shy of obama at 54%, there used to be a much greater gap there, are we saying that turn decideds are certainly playing a role in a big way here? >> yes, i think that usually, in most polling experts, most of the political experts who have studied this over the years, if you're undecided at this late stage, you have a tendency numb necessarily huge numbers, but in bigger numbers for the challanger as opposed to the incumbent. you've known the incumbent for four years, you've gotten used to it, you know what to expect. the challenger, if you're still undecided, there's a tendency to break for the challenger. >> do we think this election really will be this close? >> yes, i think it will be this close. i'm going to be anchoring our coverage, as you know, tuesday night, so i'm getting ready for a long night. four years ago at 11:00 p.m. on the east coast when the polls closed on the west coast, california, oregon, washington state, hawaii, we projected a winner of 270-plus electoral college votes for barack obama. i don
. >> a national poll showing romney's national favorability at 53%, just shy of obama at 54%, there used to be a much greater gap there, are we saying that turn decideds are certainly playing a role in a big way here? >> yes, i think that usually, in most polling experts, most of the political experts who have studied this over the years, if you're undecided at this late stage, you have a tendency numb necessarily huge numbers, but in bigger numbers for the challanger as opposed to...
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of the state polls that are leaning obama. is it possible that we are headed for another 2000 where you could have romney win the popular vote in this particular case and obama win the electoral vote? >> we could. i think it is a small chance because i think brit is right when you have if the margin is as big nationally as it appears in the national polls then you will have the state polls follow. we may have something else in play here, though. which is we are endowing all of these polls with the presix they don't have. take for example, ohio. there have been 21 polls since the first debate. in 16 of them, romney has led among in dependents by an average of 13 points. obama has led among independents in two and two polls they didn't break it out by republican, democrat or independent. it is hard to believe if romney is leading among republicans and by independents that he is not going to win. >> chris: one last question. you have the map like it is set in stone but you hear talk about the possibility there could be new states
of the state polls that are leaning obama. is it possible that we are headed for another 2000 where you could have romney win the popular vote in this particular case and obama win the electoral vote? >> we could. i think it is a small chance because i think brit is right when you have if the margin is as big nationally as it appears in the national polls then you will have the state polls follow. we may have something else in play here, though. which is we are endowing all of these polls...
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in 11 national polls, romney has more than 50% and in one poll, barack obama has over 50%. in a poll today, romney has a 60-point lead among enthusiastic voters. so i think if the race is frozen in time, it's to the governor's advantage. >> the ppp poll shows among independent voters, a 16-point advantage. 66% disapprove of barack obama. to the degrethere are persuadable voters in the tight election contests and the small number 7 states. it is right now, looking like those are going to break toward governor romney. >> we will see, the issue is clearly favorable for obottom a. the auto buyout has hurt romney significant. the issue environment in virginia, i live in northern virginia, gifavorrable to obam a. i think you will see a very interesting election night. i think we will be looking at a few of these states. we may be up very late. but obama is doing well in the states he had to win to get over 270 electoral votes. i think romney is hurt by some of the outrageous things that the senate candidates in missouri and indiana have said about a woman's right thochoose. romne
in 11 national polls, romney has more than 50% and in one poll, barack obama has over 50%. in a poll today, romney has a 60-point lead among enthusiastic voters. so i think if the race is frozen in time, it's to the governor's advantage. >> the ppp poll shows among independent voters, a 16-point advantage. 66% disapprove of barack obama. to the degrethere are persuadable voters in the tight election contests and the small number 7 states. it is right now, looking like those are going to...
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that shows some resurgence by president obama in the poll we did in early october. weighs down four among likely voters. he's regained the support of women voters, some of whom he lost in that first presidential debate. we see him making up the lost ground from the debates in the final weeks of campaigning. but man, 48-48 among likely voters who could call a contest like this one? >> when you talk about the gender gap, he has in your poll in the swing states at least, president obama has a huge, 26-point gender gap with women. but take a look at what men are saying about mitt romney. >> mitt romney has men -- according to your polling, fiercely pro romney. >> we have a big gender divide as you said, 26%. but look at the racial divide. when you put race and gender together, white men are going for mitt romney by 27 percentage points in this poll. it shows the divide we've had. and the way that the parties are putting together coalitions that are so extremely different from each other and divide the electorate almost evenly. >> ruth marcus, when we talk about such a p
that shows some resurgence by president obama in the poll we did in early october. weighs down four among likely voters. he's regained the support of women voters, some of whom he lost in that first presidential debate. we see him making up the lost ground from the debates in the final weeks of campaigning. but man, 48-48 among likely voters who could call a contest like this one? >> when you talk about the gender gap, he has in your poll in the swing states at least, president obama has...
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the older university poll has a nine point lead for obama. two other polls in the last couple days with a five point lead. >> why is the president there? >> that makes total sense. he's in iowa, wisconsin and ohio. you can't see a avenue for romney to go in. he's helping out a senate candidate. she's in a very tight, tight close race. that really is a close one. obama coming in twice, i think is very helpful to her. >> the president is going to be in madison in a few days. how big a deal is that going to be? >> i saw the street closing list. it's going to be a little hard to drive around. he's bringing bruce springsteen who madison loves. it's going to be a morning rally. i suspect not a lot of work will get done that day. >> let's talk about paul ryan. this is unusual that man that's running for two seats in one day. is he in trouble in this house seat? this is probably the best candidate, i keep hearing this that rob zerban is the most formidable candidate that's gone against paul ryan. >> ryan has never had below 57% of the vote. he's won
the older university poll has a nine point lead for obama. two other polls in the last couple days with a five point lead. >> why is the president there? >> that makes total sense. he's in iowa, wisconsin and ohio. you can't see a avenue for romney to go in. he's helping out a senate candidate. she's in a very tight, tight close race. that really is a close one. obama coming in twice, i think is very helpful to her. >> the president is going to be in madison in a few days. how...
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one poll shows president obama up by 2 and another poll shows them dead even. one poll shows them even and another poll in in new hampshire. >> in pennsylvania belongs to the president. but a new poll from the pittsburgh tribune shows a tie in pennsylvania. my head is about to explode. joining us now to help us understand, ed rollins the head of the reagan election campaign and fox news contributor. that is just a couple am virginia, romney is ahead. romney is ahead by two. now florida is conflicting information. ohio, a dead heat. no, romney is up by two, new hampshire president is ahead by two, no, it's dead even -- i mean, people should we be paying attention to these polls? >> it's the only we have until election day. there is a margin of error and 95 out of hundred times they are accurate. you get one outside. the key thing you follow trends. the trends that you have a close or dead even race. even these men can win on tuesday. my gut tells me no education beyond just my gut i think romney will week is this thing out in the end. we'll know real quick on tu
one poll shows president obama up by 2 and another poll shows them dead even. one poll shows them even and another poll in in new hampshire. >> in pennsylvania belongs to the president. but a new poll from the pittsburgh tribune shows a tie in pennsylvania. my head is about to explode. joining us now to help us understand, ed rollins the head of the reagan election campaign and fox news contributor. that is just a couple am virginia, romney is ahead. romney is ahead by two. now florida is...
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mister obama carried it easily in 2008... but - polls showing this time around, things could be different... with republican challenger mitt romney gaining ground with independents. "he's been running around saying he's got a five-point plan for the economy. turns out it's a one-point plan. folks at the very top get to play by a very different set of rules than you do." it was kissimmee, florida for mitt romney. the g-o-p presidential hopeful..telling supporters the president failed to fulfill his campaign promises. "he promised that his would be a post partisan presidency. but, we've him over these last four years that he's been divisive and and demonized almost every group that opposed him." the v-p candidates making the rounds, too. joe biden in virginia..targeting the republican ticket. "i've never seen two candidates for the highest office of the land who are more negative about the state of our country." paul ryan in ohio...where recent polls give the president a slight advantage. hope and change has become anger, frust
mister obama carried it easily in 2008... but - polls showing this time around, things could be different... with republican challenger mitt romney gaining ground with independents. "he's been running around saying he's got a five-point plan for the economy. turns out it's a one-point plan. folks at the very top get to play by a very different set of rules than you do." it was kissimmee, florida for mitt romney. the g-o-p presidential hopeful..telling supporters the president failed...
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the obama campaign is really questioning these polling figures saying that the president is still well ahead with women. it's unclear. we are seeing that trend in basically all the polling across the board. that he's lost a lot of ground with women since the first debate. the president has to make up that deficit with women if he's going to win. there is no other way. his deficit with men is so large. >> lynn, for women that are still undid he sided, the handful of women who might be undecided, we heard the economic message from governor romney, heard the president's fiscal message, coupled with his stance on women's issues, as well. which is having the greater pull on those independent women voters right now? >> i would tell you it's a breakdown. i agree with beth the obama campaign does question the figure. the whole thrust of the appeal until these last bit of time, he had been basically on jobs and the economy. that is what the romney campaign thinks trumps any issues on reproductive health. in most recent days, partly because of some of the blunders by republican candidates out th
the obama campaign is really questioning these polling figures saying that the president is still well ahead with women. it's unclear. we are seeing that trend in basically all the polling across the board. that he's lost a lot of ground with women since the first debate. the president has to make up that deficit with women if he's going to win. there is no other way. his deficit with men is so large. >> lynn, for women that are still undid he sided, the handful of women who might be...
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this is the first time in our polling that we've seen romney with a double digit lead over obama. that would be a huge turn arn if the numbers held, a 20-point net turn around from the election in 2008. >> paul: okay, if that's true, and i agree with you the polls are showing that movement of independents to romney, if that's right and a big switch from 2008, why doesn't romney have a more comfortable lead at least 2 or 3 points in these polls? >> 90% of the disagreement in the polls right now, paul, involves differing assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. if we have an electorate that looks like 2004, with equal numbers of democrats and republicans turning out, then a double digit lead for romney among independents means he wins comfortably. >> paul: right. >> on the other hand if we have an electorate that looks like 2008 with 7 percentage points more democrats than republicans in the electorate, then that's probably enough to save obama, even if he loses independents by a dozen points. >> well, where-- >> it's all in the makeup. >> paul: where do you think the recogni
this is the first time in our polling that we've seen romney with a double digit lead over obama. that would be a huge turn arn if the numbers held, a 20-point net turn around from the election in 2008. >> paul: okay, if that's true, and i agree with you the polls are showing that movement of independents to romney, if that's right and a big switch from 2008, why doesn't romney have a more comfortable lead at least 2 or 3 points in these polls? >> 90% of the disagreement in the...
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and at least in these polls, obama is ahead, florida, virginia and ohio. and that's is where this thing is tilting, it is just an incredibly difficult map for romney to navigate. >> bill: "wall street journal" i think is one of the most credible polls, and yet your poll showed 47-47 on the national poll. how do you explain that? >> it's not as if the national numbers are going to be wildly different from the states, but there are states that are standing out there in a strange island. there has been one poll in a month and a half that put romney up in ohio and that was a rasmussen poll like two days ago. we have one coming out this sunday which will be the last that we do. he was very big in the south. mitt romney's numbers are really big in texas and other places that don't necessarily matter. obama's numbers are going to be fairly mediocre in blue states so we're seeing a little bit of an imbalance. and then just the difficulty of these states that need to be won desperately by mitt romney. he should own florida right now for his own safety and he is cam
and at least in these polls, obama is ahead, florida, virginia and ohio. and that's is where this thing is tilting, it is just an incredibly difficult map for romney to navigate. >> bill: "wall street journal" i think is one of the most credible polls, and yet your poll showed 47-47 on the national poll. how do you explain that? >> it's not as if the national numbers are going to be wildly different from the states, but there are states that are standing out there in a...
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of those two dozen polls, of those 24 polls, how many does president obama lead in? 24 of the 24. every single one. and look at the rest of mr. romney's campaign schedule. he's taking the one trip to pennsylvania that republicans always take. but other than that, he was in ohio and wisconsin today. he was scheduled to be in new hampshire, iowa and colorado in the final days. and he just spent the last couple days in florida and virginia. that means the map is not expanding. no the if you can't afford to walk away from any battle ground states. he's still flogging it out where he has to win. all of this we're going to win stuff is a fake out, it's a bluff, it's trash talk. and there's nothing wrong with it. it happens every year. you should know it's a dependable part of the end of presidential campaigns. but every once in awhile at the end of a presidential campaign, this expected faint, this attempt at a fake out that everybody knows is coming, every once in awhile it's revealed as a fake out. every once in awhile you get from the campaign an admission that they actually know the
of those two dozen polls, of those 24 polls, how many does president obama lead in? 24 of the 24. every single one. and look at the rest of mr. romney's campaign schedule. he's taking the one trip to pennsylvania that republicans always take. but other than that, he was in ohio and wisconsin today. he was scheduled to be in new hampshire, iowa and colorado in the final days. and he just spent the last couple days in florida and virginia. that means the map is not expanding. no the if you can't...
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polls in the state favor president obama, but not by as much as they once did. the romney campaign calls it expanding the electoral map. the obama campaign calls it a fairy tale. well, in the parallel universe phase of the campaign. joining me is chicago mayor and former white house chief of staff rahm emanuel. let me start by showing a poll out of pennsylvania showing that the president's numbers have been slipping since september, and it's now looking like not a four-point race in pennsylvania, which is inside the margin of error. are you all worried about that? >> no. i think, look, the campaign is set, and i think people remember going into this election are jobs and you just had a report friday of 171,000 jobs were created, and, candy, i think when i saw that number the fact that january 2009 when the president first got elected we got the report within ten days about his election, which is on the january numbers. we showed 839,840,000 jobs lost. now we're 171,000 jobs gain. that's a million job swing in the right direction, and i think people know it's no
polls in the state favor president obama, but not by as much as they once did. the romney campaign calls it expanding the electoral map. the obama campaign calls it a fairy tale. well, in the parallel universe phase of the campaign. joining me is chicago mayor and former white house chief of staff rahm emanuel. let me start by showing a poll out of pennsylvania showing that the president's numbers have been slipping since september, and it's now looking like not a four-point race in...
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Nov 3, 2012
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in ohio president obama leading by two points in one poll and by three points in another poll. in virginia president obama leading by one point. in florida president obama leading by two points. one state that's not a swing state this year but that president obama made into a swing state in 2008 is the great state of indiana. indiana flipped from red to blue in the presidential contest. president obama is not necessarily expected to pull off the same thing this year in indiana. but this year there's a really hot race in indiana in the senate. after a tea party primary cost senator richard lugar his senate job, the republican candidate in indiana ended up being the guy on the left side of your screen richard mourdock. he's up against a centrist moderate democrat named joe donnelly, the guy on the right side of your screen. since mr. mourdock said when women are raped and become pregnant as a result of that rape, that is something god intended, since he made those remarks at a debate in a few weeks ago, in very, very, very, very red state indiana, the republican candidate, richar
in ohio president obama leading by two points in one poll and by three points in another poll. in virginia president obama leading by one point. in florida president obama leading by two points. one state that's not a swing state this year but that president obama made into a swing state in 2008 is the great state of indiana. indiana flipped from red to blue in the presidential contest. president obama is not necessarily expected to pull off the same thing this year in indiana. but this year...